After more than three years of fragile truce, the conflict between Yemen's capital Sanaa and Saudi Arabia has erupted into renewed hostilities. The July 2026 strike on Sanaa International Airport shattered what had been a tenuous peace established in April 2022. While that truce never evolved into a final settlement, it had largely prevented the Saudi-led coalition and Sanaa from returning to full-scale warfare.
Today, fighting has spread along Yemen's western coast and across the border into Saudi territory. The prospect of negotiations remains both distant and unavoidable, as both sides reassess their positions amid changing military realities.
For Yemenis, the war's toll extends far beyond battlefield casualties. The Saudi-led intervention began on March 26, 2015, and the accompanying blockade and infrastructure destruction have compounded combat damage exponentially. A United Nations Development Programme estimate projected 377,000 conflict-attributable deaths by the end of 2021, including 154,000 from direct violence and 223,000 from hunger, disease, and other indirect causes. Subsequent deaths and renewed fighting have only deepened this tragic toll.
📊 The Human Cost of Conflict
The southern and eastern regions, where Saudi and UAE-backed forces control areas containing much of Yemen's oil and gas wealth, have experienced different dynamics. The withdrawal of remaining UAE forces earlier this year left Riyadh with greater responsibility for the military and political direction of its Yemeni allies, though competing loyalties within those forces persist.
🗺️ The Road Map That Never Materialized
The diplomatic opening emerged from the Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapprochement in March 2023. Unable to secure military victory after eight years of war, Riyadh could present a negotiated exit as part of wider regional de-escalation.
A joint Saudi-Omani delegation led by Ambassador Mohammed al-Jaber visited Sanaa in April 2023. Meetings continued throughout the year in Sanaa, Riyadh, and Muscat. On December 23, 2023, UN envoy Hans Grundberg announced commitments toward:
- A nationwide ceasefire
- Payment of public-sector salaries
- Resumption of oil exports
- Opening of roads
- Easing restrictions on Sanaa Airport and Hodeidah Port
These commitments were intended to form a UN road map leading to an inclusive political process. However, the road map itself was never signed or implemented. Its unresolved details became increasingly consequential as the region moved toward wider conflict.
Following Israel's assault on Gaza, Sanaa launched its Red Sea campaign against shipping identified as linked to Israel. US and British attacks on Yemen followed. Washington pressed for an end to Yemen's operations supporting Gaza, while the political track with Riyadh stalled.
Sanaa contends that Saudi Arabia also failed to deliver economic measures discussed during earlier talks. What had been presented as a path to settlement became another period of preparation for potential renewed combat.
💥 Current Military Reality
That possibility became reality after the July airport strike. In September, the Ansarallah-aligned Yemeni Armed Forces advanced through western Yemen, capturing Mokha and positions near Bab al-Mandab, along with Red Sea islands. Sanaa declared Saudi-linked shipping a target and launched missiles and drones at sites inside the kingdom. Saudi airstrikes resumed across Yemen.
The blockade has disrupted Saudi oil shipments through the Red Sea, although claims that Saudi exports have fallen to zero are contradicted by reported September export volumes.
Key Recent Developments
- July 2026: Saudi strike on Sanaa International Airport ends truce
- September 2026: YAF advances capture Mokha and Bab al-Mandab positions
- Late September 2026: 52 air and missile attacks reported in single 24-hour period
- Ongoing: Yemeni missiles and drones targeting Saudi energy and military sites
🎯 Sanaa's New Demands
Yemeni researcher and journalist Talib al-Hassani expects any new negotiation to reflect the current balance on the ground. Sanaa has never ruled out talks, but it cannot simply resume unfulfilled understandings from 2023. The first shots and airstrikes of this round ended any realistic prospect of continuing as though the old process remained intact.
Brigadier General Abed al-Thawr, advisor to Sanaa's Ministry of Defense and Military Production, offers a similar reading. Since 2015, he argues, Riyadh has used talks to improve its military and political position. He contends that Saudi Arabia accepted de-escalation in 2022 to address gaps in its security system, subsequently seeking help from the US, Britain, and Israel.
Core Requirements for Peace
Hamid Asim, member of Sanaa's national negotiating delegation, outlines essential conditions:
- End to aggression and immediate cessation of Saudi military operations
- Lifting of the blockade restricting movement and trade
- Payment of compensation for war damages and humanitarian crisis
- Release of prisoners held by all parties
- Withdrawal of forces occupying parts of Yemeni territory
Thawr argues that broader political issues must be settled before older, secondary matters are addressed on fixed timetables. His principal demands include ending Saudi intervention in Yemeni affairs, terminating what he calls Riyadh's tutelage, lifting the blockade, and holding Saudi Arabia responsible for war consequences.
🌍 International Guarantees Beyond Riyadh
Decades of troubled relations have left Yemenis unwilling to accept Saudi assurances alone. Thawr wants guarantees from outside the region, naming the UN Security Council, Russia, and China among possible guarantors. He also points to Arab states Sanaa trusts, including Oman, Algeria, and Tunisia, even though several do not formally recognize authorities in Sanaa.
Thawr seeks international recognition of Sanaa's government, arguing that domestic support gives it authority to negotiate on Yemen's behalf. He rejects Riyadh's claim to a mediator role entirely.
"Saudi Arabia is a party to the war, not a mediator in it. The Yemeni people understand that Saudi Arabia is the enemy responsible for all this killing, destruction, and hardship, and that it has long-standing designs on their wealth and land."
Financial mechanisms matter equally. Thawr wants funds attached to settlements held in monitored accounts, including in trusted Arab countries like Oman and at Sanaa's central bank. Promises to pay salaries or finance reconstruction mean little unless money is secured and release tied to agreed schedules.
🤝 Regional Mediation Efforts
Reports since July have named Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan as possible mediation participants alongside Oman. Sanaa has neither confirmed nor denied these contacts, and precise roles remain unclear. The closer these countries move toward Riyadh militarily, however, the harder it may be for them to present themselves as neutral intermediaries.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan consulted under the Mecca Defense Pact in late September as fighting intensified. Public statements have not established that either intends to send troops into Yemen.
⚙️ Armies Built During the Lull
Years of de-escalation gave both sides time to prepare. Sanaa expanded its arsenal while fighting the US and Israel following the October 7, 2023 Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. Saudi Arabia worked to restructure forces aligned with it inside Yemen, particularly as rivalry with the UAE sharpened in the south and east.
The Saudi-backed Homeland Shield Forces (Dera al-Watan) became central to Riyadh's effort to establish command less dependent on formations historically backed by Abu Dhabi. The Southern Transitional Council, Giants Brigades, and forces associated with Tariq Saleh remained on the ground after UAE withdrawal. Their rivalries and local interests have made unified command difficult.
Local sources accuse some Saudi-backed formations of recruiting Salafi fighters while Riyadh funded Homeland Shield Forces and sought to reorder the coalition's chain of command around them.
Sanaa watched these deployments and says it acted before Saudi Arabia could open a new offensive. Seizure of western coastal territory, including Mokha and positions around Bab al-Mandab, gave it stronger hold on Red Sea approaches. Strikes on Saudi energy and military sites brought confrontation back into the kingdom. The shipping campaign has forced tanker diversions and placed additional pressure on Riyadh's oil export routes.
🏛️ Internal Yemeni Dynamics
Sanaa must also decide how to deal with Yemeni factions outside its control. Some fight alongside Saudi Arabia; others have stayed out of latest battles or lost ground as the western front changed hands. Any settlement with Riyadh would leave internal questions unresolved unless those factions were brought into their own political process.
Asim says channels in Sanaa are dealing with tribes and districts still under influence of Saudi-backed forces, though he provides no discussion details. He describes Yemenis as standing alongside armed forces against the Saudi campaign. This account does not mean all factions share Sanaa's political aims, and differing loyalties visible across south and east remain obstacles to national agreement.
Hassani distinguishes between groups Sanaa believes it can approach now and those it expects to confront on the battlefield first. He names the STC and some components in Hadhramaut not currently involved in fighting as possible interlocutors. Direct dialogue is preferable when it can produce understanding. With factions still committed to fighting, he believes negotiations will become useful only after they suffer military setbacks.
Riyadh can negotiate an end to its intervention, but it cannot settle Yemen's internal divisions on behalf of factions it has armed. Sanaa's coastal advance gives it a stronger hand across the Saudi negotiating table. Whether it can turn that advantage into agreements with other Yemenis is a battle of a different kind, one that missiles and blockades cannot decide.
🔮 Looking Forward
Hassani sees little in recent Saudi moves suggesting imminent return to negotiations. Yet war also carries growing price for Riyadh. Sanaa, in his view, would approach any talks after consolidating territorial gains and imposing costs across the border and at sea.
The path forward requires more than ceasefire declarations. It demands concrete steps with deadlines that cannot be stretched indefinitely. Without effective monitoring mechanisms and enforceable guarantees, previous delays proved costly. Sanaa's leadership has ordered forces to keep every option available until commitments are carried out in practice. Past Saudi delays have made Sanaa unwilling to halt campaigns merely in exchange for declarations of intent.
The armed forces remain ready for any scenario. As Yemen enters this new phase, the question is not whether talks will eventually occur, but on whose terms and with what guarantees. For Sanaa, the price of peace now includes accountability, recognition, and structural changes that go far beyond the economic and confidence-building measures that dominated previous diplomatic efforts.
The world watches as two adversaries, exhausted by years of conflict yet unable to find common ground, navigate a landscape where military gains and diplomatic leverage shift daily. The ultimate resolution will require not just an end to fighting, but a fundamental reimagining of relationships between neighbors who have known only war for over a decade.
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